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Scenario Planning: Triangulating an uncertain future
Source: www.cfri.co.uk
Topic: Scenario Planning
Sort Desciption: Scenario Planning: Triangulating an uncertain future PROJECT SUMMARY A forward-thinking expert at Harper Adams University College has been instrumental in developing a concept on Rural Scenario ...
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Scenario Planning:
Triangulating an
uncertain future
PROJECT SUMMARY
A forward-thinking expert at Harper Adams
University College has been instrumental in
developing a concept on Rural Scenario
Planning.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
launched the Rural Scenario Planning project
last year. Pioneered by Shell during the
1970s oil crisis, scenario planning is used
when the future is very difficult to predict. It
provides strategies that adapt to different
future developments by identifying driving
forces and uncertainty then sets alternative
views of the future, against which investment
decisions can be tested.
Scenario Planning involves developing
plausible alternatives of what might happen in
the future. For example, a large farming
business might consider that environmental
and economic factors will be uppermost in its
future development. What should be the
trade-off between peak efficiency in
production and environmental enhancement?
Scenario Planning can help with decisions
about participation in environmental schemes,
or the extent of investment in new production
and storage equipment. For another farm, the
trade-off between environmental and social
developm ...